The return of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in 2026 changes something fundamental in the behaviour of international real estate investors. After a decade in which abundant liquidity had compressed risk premiums to the point of making them almost invisible, a factor long set aside is resurfacing: geopolitical risk has become tangible again.
Dubai: from El Dorado to risk premium
Between 2022 and early 2025, Dubai offered its investors a price rise of nearly 60%, driven by massive inflows of foreign capital. The current regional tensions are bringing this cycle of euphoria to a close: not abruptly, but structurally.
What is wavering is not Dubai real estate as such. It is the international confidence that supported it. Investors, most of them foreign, are now reassessing the security of infrastructure, regional stability and above all the liquidity of the market in the event of a shock. The market is not collapsing, but it is slowing down, involves more negotiation and demands more analysis. Dubai is moving from a market of euphoria to a market of conviction.
Switzerland: the return of the safe haven
By contrast, Swiss real estate is fully regaining its role as a safe-haven asset. Political stability, a strong franc, the depth and transparency of a solid domestic market: in a context of conflict, these attributes once again become leading arguments. Major asset management firms confirm it: Swiss real estate is held in portfolios for its defensive profile and its resilience to external shocks.
Yields remain low, often below 3% net, and valuations high. Yet in an uncertain environment, preserving capital takes precedence over the pursuit of yield. This is not a choice of yield; it is a choice of philosophy.
A divide that reveals two investment approaches
This context accentuates an existing polarisation between two profiles. Cautious investors are repositioning towards Switzerland, accepting low yields in exchange for visibility and stability. Opportunistic investors, for their part, remain active in Dubai, and are taking advantage of the slowdown precisely to negotiate entries on terms they would not have obtained eighteen months ago.
The war did not create this divide. It has simply turned it into a genuine divergence in investment philosophy.
What really changes: the return of the price of risk
For more than a decade, we had almost forgotten that a high yield always comes at a cost, sometimes invisible in calm times, but very real. Liquidity can disappear faster than it appears. Geographical diversification implies exposure to risks that local markets do not face.
The conflict in the Middle East acts as a harsh reminder: real estate is, and will remain, a trade-off between return and risk. What changes is that this trade-off is becoming a conscious one again.
Towards a lasting revaluation of safe-haven markets
In the medium term, three trends are emerging. Stable markets, with Switzerland in the lead, should capture a growing share of international reallocations. Dubai is not disappearing from the radar, but it is maturing: quality projects will continue to perform, for investors who have become more demanding. Above all, the geopolitical risk premium could become a lasting feature, structurally influencing allocation decisions well beyond this conflict.
Conclusion
The war in the Middle East does not end Dubai’s appeal; it redefines the rules. It does not make Switzerland more profitable; it makes it more strategic.
In this new environment, the real question is no longer “where should I invest?” but: what level of risk am I prepared to accept for this return? And am I able to assess it honestly?
The expert’s viewpoint
We remain attentive to international opportunities, but we are not adventurous with our clients’ money. In the current context, our conviction is simple: investment discipline must take precedence over the opportunistic pursuit of yield.
Our approach remains anchored in Switzerland, based on rigorous project analysis, demanding partner selection and comprehensive support. In an uncertain environment, our role is not to follow trends, but to secure coherent and sustainable investment trajectories.